Manhattan vs St. Peters – Total 120 – There has been a total of 120 on the board twice 2017 and it has gone over by an average of 14.5 points. Combined these teams are 8-2 when the total is 125 point or less, each going over by an average of 6 points. Will be a nail-biter but should go over. OVER 120 – 1 UNIT
Southern Mississippi vs. Charlotte – Southern Mississippi -3 – Since 2017 there have been 39 games in which the closing Spread was 3-6.5 points with a total of fewer than 125.5 points. 65.85 of the time the favorite covers a spread between 3-6.5 points. But in that same time period, an Away team favored by 3 points has covered the spread 53.4% of the time.
In that same time period, Southern Mississippi covers the spread 52.4% of the time. Southern Mississippi has been an away favorite one time since 2017 and they failed to cover the spread by 14 points, they are 8-11 ATS as an away team failing to cover the spread by an average of 2.3 points. When Southern Miss has had 4 or more days off between games they only cover the spread 44.4% of the time. But they do cover the spread when coming off a win at 60% of the time, but on
Charlotte, on the other hand, is one of the worst teams in the country at covering the spread with an ATS cover percentage of 34.2%. On average they fail to cover the spread by 2.4 points. When at home they cover the spread 36.8% of their games. With 4+ days of rest, they fail to cover the spread 75% of the time by an average of 3.2 points. When coming off a win the fail to cover the spread 85.7% of the time by an average of 4.4 points.
Final Analysis: Southern Mississippi has had 4 days off with the previous 2 games at home. Prior to this home stretch and break they played 5 straight road games and we’re 3-2 ATS. They were 1-1 ATS on their homestand. Out of 353 teams, Charlotte ranks 343 ATS, Southern Mississippi ranks 127th. So. Miss -3 – 1 Unit
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